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UK Economy Will Have to Increase Exports

Feb 2, 2010 Stock News

It’s common knowledge that Britain, like most of the world, is having financial problems at the moment. A new report from a team of economic forecasters at Ernst & Young says that the UK is facing a decade of readjustments away from consumer spending. The report said that Britain will need to start focusing on increased exports rather than the spending that comes from consumers.

Many local companies will find this to be a very tough transition because they have dealt with UK clients for so long. Looking to the overseas markets will be the only way that they will be able to meet current sales targets in many cases. The Ernst & Young report says that the UK economy has focused much of its energy on the domestic consumer for 10-12 years but that it wouldn’t work going forward. It was said that even a 1% growth rate would be difficult to see in 2010 which is pretty tough for many market analysts to deal with. Chief economic adviser, Peter Spencer said that UK consumers were now essentially cashed out.

Consumers in the UK are “cashed out” Spencer said. He went on to say that forecasts were showing that consumer spending in the country would only increase by 0.4% this coming year. This comes at a tough time for UK businesses and the report from Ernst & Young shows that an upturn in the world economy was the only way there would be any real growth in the Britain this year. Spencer said “the energy and enterprise of UK exporters” was what would make or break the financial situation.

The Ernst & Young report from this week says refocusing trade to the overseas markets was going to be key to the success of many UK businesses. One place they suggest to start is China. The United Kingdom has been a large player in Asian markets in the past but they seem to have skipped over China to some extent. Currently, the UK has a very low market share in the country. In order to really get the economy back the British will have to look to this growing market in the coming year.

The report said that in 2011 they expect to see increases in UK exports but that 2010 could still be slow. Ernst and Young said that 2010 and 2011 would see export increases of 10% and 11%, respectively. This would calm the nerves of many investors and get the markets moving again. The UK government issued statistics showing the recession had ended in late 2009 but this was only made possible by temporary government measures.

The report said that firm restocking, the car scraping program, and a lower VAT had kept the country afloat during tough times.

When the positive effects of this stimulus have worn off, it’s expected that growth will slow down significantly says the report by Ernst and Young.

At the same time as this report, Begbies Traynor issued more data saying that insolvencies were down in the final quarter of 2009 – as much as 15% lower than a year before. Begbies Traynor felt this could be another side effect of government measures after the recession.

The Ernst & Young report said the economy would be helped by lower interest rates but that further unemployment was expected either way.

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The Simple Way To Use Trend Following As A Market Strategy

Dec 28, 2009 Stock Investing

Trend following is a market method that takes advantage of both the highs and lows of the market. It is a method that employs risk management to minimize potential losses. Traders who employ trend following enter the market after a trend has been settled, they do not attempt to forecast trends. They figure out how much to invest in a specific issue based on the size of the trading account and the stableness of the issue.

Most trend disciples invest in sophisticated software that can be programmed to exit if the trend changes all of a sudden. Then the traders keep waiting and see if the trend reasserts itself before reinvesting. This is about following the already established pattern of certain stocks.

Price is the first rule of trend following. Other indicators aren’t important, although they are not completely disregarded. The second factor is the decision of how much to trade. The timing is less important than the quantity of the trade. Then there’s the exit strategy. When to get out if the trade is unprofitable or if the trade is rewarding. Finally, you have to set a stop loss for the maximum sufficient loss.

These traders use their software to test trades before investing. The software can guage the risks against the potential advantages of the exchange. The assorted factors relevant to the trade are programmed into the software and the trader makes his decision based on the result of the test.

Outside events can have an unforeseen effect on market trends. Man made and natural disasters and political unrest can have either a positive or negative result on the market. For instance, when Hurricane Katrina damaged and wrecked oil rigs and pipelines in the Gulf of Mexico, oil costs right away climbed responding to a predicted dearth. Although the shortage never materialized, costs remained high for many months due to speculation in both the commodities and stock exchange.

All stock exchange investments are of a speculative nature. The method of following trends is one of many utilised by backers. It permits speculators to milk downward trends as well as up swings and earn a profit in any kind of market. Trend supporters hold stocks for more time than those who use hot stack methods in which the buy and sell could be concluded in a few hours. They also exploit complex software which can help them in making there choices.

In the market there is no guaranteed strategy for making profits. It is necessary to have a plan or you will actually lose money. Trend following should by one of several strategies you employ to maximise your gains and minimize your losses.

Find more on ETF trading signals and ETF trend following.

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Parameters To Select Your Trading System

Oct 26, 2009 Stock Investing

As a trader you will need to develop your own trading system. You need to test your trading system overtime. Why you need a trading system? You need a trading system to make sure that your trading decisions are not arbitrary and based on your whims or emotions. A trading system will make your trading almost mechanical and emotion free. When selecting a trading system, first try to paper trade it. You need to paper trade your trading system to get the bugs out. Paper trading is not a substitute for live trading but still you can assume that 75% of the results that you achieve in demo trading can be replicated in live trading.

Use the results of these paper trades to calculate your win ratio and payoff ratio. These two figures are highly important to know for any trading system. Determine what your personal win ratio and payoff ratio are in using that trading system over time.

Now in the case of a successful trader, it takes three to tango here. The trading system, your money management system and you yourself, all three of you have to gel together. The more profitable you will be over time, the stronger and more developed the relationship is between the three of you.

So for you to become a successful trader, a trading system is not enough. You need a good money management plan as well. Win ratio and the payoff ratio are required in developing a sound money management plan that will work hand in hand with that trading system. What can be the best parameters to selecting your trading system? When selecting your trading system, use these five parameters:

1) The trading system is analytical. Trade entries in the trading system are defined by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and not on random and spontaneous decisions.

2) Before you enter the trade, the trading system is supposed to tell about the stop loss. The initial stop loss exit is determined before entering your trade.

3) Trade exits are determined by market price activity, key support and resistance levels, volume and volatility dynamics and fundamental rules, not on any arbitrary dollar loss that you feel comfortable with.

4) You must not underestimate the importance of paper trading though it is not a substitute for live trading. Your trading system has been adequately paper traded or live traded and you have determined your personal statistical performance. You need to know your win ratio and the payoff ratio.

Some traders would like to use the win ratio and the payoff ratio achieved by the other traders. Do not rely on the results that the other got with that trading system. Use the actual results that you attained while using that trading system in calculating your win ratio and the payoff ratio.

You can use a computer in testing the performance of a trading system. Again do not delude yourself by thinking that computer back testing can give you your win ratio or payoff ratio. Do not try to rely on computer back tested results. Your personal performance results are the real results that matter. You cannot depend on computer results and other traders results.

5) Your trading rules should be written out step by step in sequence so that the entries and exits are consistent, clear and above all quantifiable.

Have you ever heard of the Turtle Trading System? One perfect example of a rule based trading system is the Turtle Trading System. This system was developed for the commodities futures market.

You must know the story of Turtle Trading Rules. The story of Turtle trading rules is very interesting. The creators of that trading system had a discussion one day. One was of the opinion that great traders are born. The other said great traders can be made.

Both the great masters had a bet. Advertisements were placed in the Wall Street Journal and the Barrons. After short listing, a number of completely new traders were selected to teach them those rules and see if they could become successful traders. Many succeeded with the turtle trading system and became highly successful traders. But only those succeeded who had the discipline to consistently apply the Turtle Trading Rules while trading.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Know Forex Charts! Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Grab a totally unique version of this article from the Uber Article Directory

Tags: business, credit, debt, finance, forex, futures, home business, investing, Options, real estate, retirement, Stock Investing, stocks, trading, wealth building

Euro Currency Profile (Part I)

Oct 25, 2009 Stock Investing

EU has emerged as a major global political and economic power block in recent decades. The European Union consists of fifteen member countries that include the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland and the United Kingdom.

Only 12 common currency countries out of these above 15 countries constitute the European Monetary Union (EMU). These 12 countries share a single monetary policy dictated by the European Central Bank (ECB). All these above countries share the common currency Euro except Denmark, Sweden and United Kingdom.

After the United States, EMU is the worlds second largest economic powerhouse. EMU has a highly developed and efficient fixed income, equity and the futures market. This makes EMU the second most attractive investment market for domestic and international investors. Many hedge funds are based in EU countries.

Historically US assets have had solid returns. As a result, United States absorbs something like 70% of the total foreign savings. In the past, EMU had difficulty in attracting foreign direct investment or large capital inflows. The primary reason was the United States.

However, with the introduction of the Euro and the EMU beginning to incorporate even more members in Eastern Europe, the Euros importance is expected to increase. The capital flows to Europe is expected to increase.

Demand for Euro is expected to continue rising with foreign central banks expected to diversify their Euro reserve holdings even further. EMU is in fact a trade driven and a capital flow driven economy. Trade is very important to the national economies within EMU.

EMU has significant power in the international trade arena because of the size of the EMUs trade with the rest of the world. EU exports comprise almost 20% of the world trade. While EU accounts for only 17% of the world imports! Unlike United States, EMU does not have large trade deficit or surplus.

Both EU and the United States are two very important members of the World Trade organization (WTO). United States is the largest trading partner of EU. The formation of EU allows individual member countries to group as one entity and negotiates on an equal playing field with the United States. International clout is one of the primary reasons in the formation of EU.

Leading import sources for EU are China, Switzerland, United States, Japan and Russia. Leading export markets for EU are the United States, Japan, Poland, Switzerland and China.

Large numbers of EU based companies concentrate their research, design, innovation and marketing part of the activity in EU while outsourcing most of their manufacturing to Asia. EU is primarily a service oriented economy. Services account for more than 70% of the EU economy while manufacturing, mining and utilities account for around 20% of the EU economy.

Before Euro, most of the countries had to deal with individual national currencies with each having a different risk profile. Most international trade transactions involve the British Pound, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. It is important for most of the countries to hold large amounts of reserve currencies to reduce exchange rate risk and transaction costs.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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Free Candlesticks Guide

Oct 24, 2009 Stock Investing

Download Candlestick Guide (82 pages) free after you finish reading this article. This candlestick guide is a complementary gift for you from Options University and is comprehensive. Candlesticks have become popular in the Western trading community especially the United States in the past decade. However, candlestick charting methods had been developed by Japanese rice traders hundreds of years back.

The advent of internet has leveled the playing field for traders whether they trade stocks, futures, options, commodities, precious metals or currencies. Access to the market is now only one mouse click away.

The opening of retail trading especially in the currency markets that was previously only open to large players like big banks and corporations has been a revolution. Market information is now in most cases freely available online. Internet has made commission rates dramatically lower. The result is that a whole generation of new traders and investors want to try their luck beating the market. You can now demo trade with virtual money to develop and hone your trading skills.

Can you beat the market? It depends if you are using the right tools. I am a great fan of candlesticks charting and I have seen many traders both new and professionals becoming die hard fans of candlestick charting. Why? Because candlestick charting is the best tool available.

Why candlestick charting is superior to other forms of charting like the line charts, bar charts or point and figure charts? One of the best features of candlestick charting is its visual appeal and readability. You can glance at a candlestick chart and quickly gain an understanding of whats going on with the price action in the market.

You can easily spot opening and closing price of a security or currency on a candlestick chart. These price levels can be a very important area of support and resistance from day to day.

This information can be extremely useful for short term traders like day traders and swing traders. There are certain specific candlestick patterns that can help you identify when is the best time to buy, sell or wait on a trade or investment.

Now in order to trade and invest effectively using candlestick charts you need to understand these candlestick patterns. These candlestick patterns can be a real boon to your trading and you can combine them with other technical indicators for even more reliable results.

Many different types of candlestick patterns can tell you what may lie ahead in the market. Patterns appear on the candlestick charts as simple, single stick occurrences or complex multi stick formations.

You may use the information provided by candlestick patterns to decide when to get into a trade, when to get out of a trade or even when to hang unto a trade you are already in. This information can be highly valuable in knowing that the prevailing trend might reverse or continue.

Now you can download your candlestick guide. You dont need to waste your money on buying a guide because this candlestick guide is a complementary gift for you from the Options University. This is the best candlestick guide in the market. Download your 82 page candlestick guide here complete with strategy flash cards all free.

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Currency Profile Of Euro (Part II)

Oct 21, 2009 Stock Investing

Before the coming of Euro, it was necessary to hold large amounts of every individual European currency. As a result the currency reserves tended towards US Dollar. In 1990s, 65% of the global reserves were in US Dollar.

However, with the introduction of Euro, foreign reserve assets are shifting in favor of Euro. As EU becomes one of the major trading partners for most countries around the world, this trend is expected to continue.

The European Central Bank: The European Central Bank (ECB) is the governing body that determines the monetary policy for the EMU countries. The Executive Board of ECB comprises the president, the vice president and four other members. These individuals along with the governors of the member national banks comprise the Governing Council. The Executive Board implements the policies made by the Governing Council.

The policy meetings are biweekly. Although ECB meets biweekly and has the power to change the monetary policy in any of these meeting, it is only expected to do so where an official press conference is scheduled afterwards. New monetary policy decisions are usually taken by a majority vote. The president has the deciding vote in the event of a tie.

ECB heavily depends on the individual central banks in the implementation of its policies. ECB has a strict mandate based on inflation and deficit. ECB tries to keep the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) below 2% and M3 (money supply) annual growth below 4.5%. So, the EMUs primary objective is price stability and growth.

ECB is supposed to coordinate its policy decisions with the respective central banks. You should understand that the ECB and the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) are independent institutions from both national governments and other EU institutions. This operational independence is granted to them as per Article 108 of the Maastricht Treaty. Without this independence, meaningful monetary policy is out of question.

How ECB achieves its policy targets of price stability and growth? The primary tools the ECB uses to control monetary policy are the Open Market Operations. ECB has at is disposal four categories of open market operations that it can use to manage interest rates, control liquidity and signal monetary policy stance.

Main refinancing operations are regular liquidity providing reverse transactions. Bulk of refinancing for the financial sector is done through these operations. These refinancing operations are conducted weekly with a maturity of two weeks.

In order to smooth the effects on interest rates caused by unexpected liquidity fluctuations, fine tuning operations are executed on an ad hoc basis with the aim of both managing the liquidity situation in the market and steering interest rates. Longer term refinancing operations are liquidity providing reverse transactions with a monthly frequency and a maturity of three months. These operations provide counterparties with additional long term liquidity.

Structural operations involve the issuance of debt certificates, reverse transactions and outright transactions. The ECB minimum bid rate is the key policy target for the ECB. It is the level of borrowing that ECB offers to the central banks of its member states.

If it believes that inflation is of concern, ECB is not constrained from intervening in the forex markets. Therefore, ECB does not usually have the exchange rate target but can factor in exchange rates in its policy deliberations as exchange rate impacts price stability.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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Position Trading Explained (Part II)

Oct 17, 2009 Stock Investing

After performing the fundamental analysis, the trader may be confident that the US Dollar is indicating overall weakness and the Euro is indicating overall strength for the coming six months.

The next step for the position trader would be to open a long position in EUR/USD pair. This simultaneously provides the position trader with long Euro position and a short US Dollar position.

Going long on Euro and at the same time short on US Dollar, this combined trading position fulfills your fundamental outlook as the position trader on both the currencies. The long term directional bias has been formed by you as the position trader on the basis of fundamental analysis.

So position trading depends on using fundamental analysis in identifying a profitable position in the currency market. But you still need technical analysis to determine your entry and exit in the market. You will have to use technical analysis in setting up the actual trade. Pinpointing the best time for the trade entry as well as setting risk managed control strategies is best accomplished by using technical analysis.

Now this concept of strength/weakness fits extremely well with the forex markets as all currencies are traded in pairs unlike the stock market or for that matter other financial markets. The position trading uses fundamental analysis in pairing strength with weakness.

Trading forex requires a directional commitment on two currencies for each trade, so position trading is ideal for forex trading. Position trading with the strength/weakness model is the most logical fundamental method for approaching long term forex trading.

In stock trading, you only invest in stocks that go up and down but two stocks can never be paired together. Buying one currency because it looks like it will become stronger while simultaneously selling another currency because it looks like it will become weaker is a better way to trade as compared to other financial markets.

What should be your first step to identify a strong/weak pair? Your first step as a position trader should be analyze the Central Bank policy statements, economic growth factors of these countries, global economic news etc to identify the currency with the strongest positive future prospects and the currency with the strongest negative future prospects at a given point in time. You will have to do fundamental research and analysis on all major currency pairs as a position trader.

Suppose you identify AUD and JPY as the strongest gainer currencies in the foreseeable future while CAD and CHF as the strongest loser currencies by performing fundamental analysis. Possible currency pairs for position trading could be long AUD/CAD, long AUD/CHF, short CAD/JPY and short CHF/JPY.

In currency markets, price action never moves in a straight line and is never ever linear. It is always up and down with minor trends superimposed on a major general trend. Swing traders usually ride the minor trends while position traders ride long term general trends. You can enter the trades with the help of technical analysis and hold them as long as they move in the correct direction disregarding minor corrective swings and market noise in position trading.

If done properly, position trading can be one of the most effective methods of extracting long term profits from the forex markets. Position trading maybe the most difficult method of approaching forex trading for the beginners and inexperienced traders! It requires a great deal of patience and faith in ones own analysis to weather the inevitable swings against the trading position. Do you have the patience to become a successful position trader?

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. He is interested in day trading stocks and currencies. Try Strignano’s Forex Signals free. Discover a revolutionary Forex Robot Trading System!

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Euro Currency Profile (Part III)

Oct 13, 2009 Stock Investing

Forex market participants widely watch the comments by the members of the Governing Council of ECB. These comments frequently tend to move the Euro. ECB publishes monthly bulletin detailing analysis of economic conditions. This bulletin can give important signals to changes in the monetary policy.

All major euro crosses are highly liquid. Now EUR/USD cross is the most liquid currency. The movements of EUR/USD currency pair are used as the primary gauge to judge the health of both European and the United States health. Euro is also known as the anti-dollar since it is the dollar fundamentals that have dictated the movements in the EUR/USD pair from 2003-2008.

As they have tight spreads, make orderly moves and rarely gap, EUR/USD and EUR/GBP are great trading currencies. EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are very liquid pairs too and are used to judge the health of the Japanese and Swiss economies. Always remember to understand and study each currency pair in detail. Each currency pair has a unique behavior that you need to understand before you plan to trade that pair.

Euro is still a new currency. It was launched in 1999. Euro has unique risks. There are number of risks unique to the Euro. The most important is the exposure to the economic, political and social development of 15 member countries in the EU.

Although more countries are expected to join EMU, however, if a member country drops Euro and reverts back to its original national currency because it believes that ECB actions are not in its best interests, it could affect the stability of the entire region.

We can say Euro is a currency without a country. ECB has the power to determine monetary policy for its 15 member countries. With that comes the political pressure of 15 governments. This political pressure frequently tests the actions of ECB.

However, the rapid response of ECB to the present global financial crisis in the shape of deep liquidity injections has transformed its reputation. The spread between 10 year US Treasuries and 10 year bunds can indicate Euro sentiment.

As a forex trader you should know one important interest rate. It is the Euro Interbank Offer Rate (Euribor). This is the rate offered from one large bank to another on interbank term deposits. Traders and investors tend to compare the Euribor futures rate with the Eurodollars futures rate.

Higher spreads between the two rates makes the European fixed income assets more attractive. Lower spreads make the European assets less attractive. Merger and Acquisition activities between US and European multinationals have important implications for EUR/USD pair. Large deals if in cash have often significant short term impact on EUR/USD.

Important indicators for Euro are Harmonized Index of Consumer prices (HICP), M3, German Unemployment, Preliminary GDP that includes France, Germany and Netherlands, German Industrial Production, Individual country budget deficit. The largest countries in EMU are Germany, France and Italy. Study of the economic data of these three large countries is also important.

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Currency Profile Of US Dollar (Part II)

Oct 10, 2009 Stock Investing

The Federal Reserve Board (FED) is responsible for making the monetary policy of United States. FED sets and implements the monetary policy through its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The voting members of FOMC are the seven governors of FED plus five presidents of the district reserve banks. Eight meeting of FOMC are held every year. These meetings are widely watched by the analyst for interest rate announcements and changes in growth expectations.

FED has the mandate for long run price stability and sustainable economic growth. FED has a high degree of independence in setting the monetary policy. FED uses the monetary policy to control inflation, unemployment and balanced growth. The most important tool used by FED is its Open Market Operations.

Open market operations involve FEDs sale or purchase of government securities that includes treasury bills, notes and bonds. In increase in FEDs purchases lowers the interest rates while selling of these securities raises the interest rate.

The primary interest rate that is affected by these operations is the Federal Fund Rate. Federal Fund Rate is the key policy target of the FED. It is the interest rate at which the banks lend overnight to one another.

The US fiscal policy is in the control of US Treasury. Fiscal policy means the amount of taxes and government spending for a given year. In fact it is the US Treasury that actually determines the US Dollar policy.

You should always try to watch the US Treasury views as changes to that view is very important for the currency markets. For example, US Treasury can give instructions to the New York Federal Reserve Board to intervene in the forex markets by actually buying or selling US Dollars if the US Treasury feels that the US Dollar is under or overvalued.

Over 90% of all currency deals involve the US Dollar. The heavily traded currency pairs in the global currency markets are EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD and USD/CHF. These currency pairs represent the most frequently traded currency pairs in the global markets. As you can see, all these currency pairs involve US Dollar on either side of the pair. So the most important economic data for the global currency markets is the US Dollar fundamentals.

There is an almost perfect negative correlation between the US Dollar and the gold prices. The US Dollar moves in opposite direction to the gold. This inverse relationship stems from the fact that gold is measure in US Dollars.

When US Dollar depreciates due to global economic uncertainty like the present, gold appreciates. Gold is commonly viewed as the ultimate safe haven commodity by the investors all over the globe. You must know that the gold prices are going up right now.

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Currency Profile Of US Dollar (Part I)

Oct 6, 2009 Stock Investing

As a currency trader, you should know the US Dollar intimately. It is important for you as currency trader to have a good grasp of the general economic characteristics of the most commonly traded currencies. US Dollar is the most heavily traded currency in the global economy.

Some currencies tend to track commodity prices while others may move in complete contrast. Traders need to also know the difference between the expected and the actual data.

The correlation between the currency markets and news is very important. News or data that is in line with the expectations has less of an impact on currency movements than unexpected news or data. Therefore short term traders need to closely monitor the expectation of the currency markets.

US GDP is approximately five times the size of Germany, three times the size of Japan and seven times the size of UK. United States is the worlds leading economy. The US economy is now a service oriented economy with almost 80% of GDP coming from real estate, finance, health care, transportation and business services.

United States capital markets are the most efficient markets in the world. United States has the worlds most liquid and deep equity and fixed income markets in the world. The manufacturing sector is still formidable and US Dollar is particularly sensitive to the development within the sector. Cheap capital formation is what drives any company or any economy and United States capital markets help in cheap capital formation.

Investors from all over the world purchase US assets due to their liquidity and safety. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) into the US is equal to almost 40% of the total net inflows for United States. The import and export volume of US also dwarfs the countries. This maybe due to the sheer size of US as true import and export represent only 12% of the GDP.

US economy is facing the paradox of the twin deficits. One is the Budget Deficit and the other is the Current Account (CA) deficit. US is running a large CA deficit for more than a decade now.

The large CA deficit makes the US Dollar highly sensitive to changes in the capital flows. US need to attract a few billion dollars of capital inflows daily in order to prevent the decline in the value of US Dollar.

United States is a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This means that United States is heavily committed to the free trade idea. A weaker US Dollar will help boost US exports whereas a stronger US Dollar makes the US exports expensive and US imports cheap. US trade is equal to roughly 20% of the world trade. United States is the trading partner of many countries across the globe.

Leading import sources for United States are: China, Mexico, Japan, Canada and European Union (EU). Leading export markets for United States are: Japan, European Union (EU), United Kingdom, Canada and Mexico. The growth and political stability in countries that are leading export markets for US are important. For example, Canadas demand for US exports will fall that will have a ripple effect on US growth should Canada growth slow.

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